Peaceful takeover streets of rogue6/24/2023 ![]() ![]() b These differences became much more apparent during the Iraq insurgency. But, as it has been oft observed, some of the roots date back to differences in approach and doctrine apparent in Afghanistan before 9/11 between al-Qa`ida’s senior leadership and the relatively more extreme Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who maintained a significant degree of autonomy and would later lead al-Qa`ida in Iraq, the group that eventually turned into the Islamic State. The bifurcation of global jihad into two streams has complex causes that stretch back decades. The modern jihadi movement has, from its inception half a century ago, seen large divides between different groups and approaches. ![]() For example, in a speech released on September 11, 2018, al-Zawahiri railed against a “deviant” group containing “innovative extremists who declare takfir on us and deem our blood permissible, and against whom we may be forced to fight.” 5 Rather than ideological differences between the groups softening, the passage of time is hardening differences in approach and doctrine, creating the conditions for sustained competition and acrimony between the groups and a long-term schism between two different schools of jihad. ![]() Both groups continue to operate as rival and distinct entities and engage in a war of words. 4īy the fall of 2018, none of these scenarios-an al-Qa`ida takeover of the Islamic State, a fracturing of the Islamic State into smaller groups, or a merger between the global jihadi powerhouses-has materialized. The third was a merger between the two rivals by settling differences amongst leaders and finding ideological and doctrinal common ground. a The second was that the Islamic State would fracture into smaller groups. The first was that al-Qa`ida would boost its ranks with defeated Islamic State members either by reclaiming the mantle of global jihad 3 or pushing its own ideology closer to that of the Islamic State. These could be grouped into three potential scenarios. In this context, multiple theories emerged about the possible trajectories of the jihadi organizations in the coming years. ![]() 2 The Islamic State’s steady decline now seemed to hold the promise of vindicating al-Zawahiri’s strategy and seemed it could lead to disillusioned fighters and other jihadis joining al-Qa`ida’s ranks. In May 2016, Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, the Islamic State’s then spokesman, conceded that his group could be expelled out of its major strongholds in Sirte, Raqqa, and Mosul, 1 while Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qa`ida’s leader, mocked the deteriorating fortunes of the Islamic State. Prior to that, the military gains of the Islamic State and the caliphate that it had established had cast doubt over the viability of al-Qa`ida’s more patient strategy. As a result, by mid-2016, the Islamic State’s territorial decline had become vast and visible, and counterterrorism analysts began to wonder if al-Qa`ida could gain back its position as the standard bearer of the global jihadi movement. But by provoking conflict with much of the rest of the world, the Islamic State rallied a powerful coalition against it. When the Islamic State declared a caliphate in 2014, took over large parts of Syria and Iraq, and thereby energized Islamist extremists worldwide, some predicted it would forever eclipse al-Qa`ida. In recent years, the global jihadi movement has been in a state of flux. Neither group is on the brink of fracturing nor likely to accept the legitimacy of the other in the coming years. While the relative fortunes of the Islamic State and al-Qa`ida have oscillated in recent years, developments in the jihadi environment in Syria have hardened longstanding differences between them in doctrine and approach. But rather than being about to enter a period of mergers or takeovers, the global jihadi movement for the foreseeable future is likely to be led by two distinct and rival groups. Abstract: With the collapse of the Islamic State’s territorial caliphate, the global jihadi movement is in a state of flux. ![]()
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